The Moon’s Possible Visitor: Asteroid 2024 YR4

Breaking space news: A building-sized asteroid now has a higher chance of crashing into the Moon in 2032 – rather than Earth!

NASA scientists have recently announced an increased possibility that a large asteroid might collide with Earth’s Moon. Known as 2024 YR4, this space rock is roughly the size of a 10-story building.

When astronomers first discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 in December 2024, they calculated a small chance it might hit Earth in 2032. The risk of Earth impact initially increased from 1.2% to 3.1% by mid-February 2025, but by late February, scientists determined the asteroid would almost certainly miss our planet.

To gather more precise data, NASA turned the powerful James Webb Space Telescope toward the asteroid. This new observation revealed something unexpected—while 2024 YR4 won’t hit Earth, it might hit our Moon instead.

The Webb telescope also helped scientists refine their size estimate of the asteroid. Previously thought to be between 131-295 feet (40-90 meters) across, they now believe it measures 174-220 feet (53-67 meters), comparable to a 10-story building.

According to planetary defense experts at NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies, the probability of 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon on December 22, 2032, has increased from 1.7% in late February to 3.8% in early April 2025. These calculations combine data from both the Webb telescope and ground-based observatories.

Scientists emphasize that there’s still a 96.2% chance the asteroid will miss the Moon entirely. They also note that with potentially hazardous asteroids, the calculated probability of impact often rises before eventually decreasing as more observations are made. Additionally, NASA confirms that even if 2024 YR4 did strike the Moon, it wouldn’t alter the Moon’s orbit.

As asteroid 2024 YR4 continues its journey around the Sun, it will soon move too far away for ground-based telescopes to track. However, the Webb telescope will observe it again in late April or early May 2025, which should help scientists determine more accurately whether it will impact Earth’s Moon.

(Source)